Thursday, July 3, 2008

What if an oil boomlet happens?


If OPEC would slash prices, new wells come online, Iraq and Nigeria production gets back to full capacity, and gasoline in the the U.S. hits $2 a gallon, would the alternative energy movement dry up and blow away?

I sometimes wonder about that. Just as E-85 and biodiesel are starting to reach the next level, as GM and other car makers aim to dramatically increase their flexfuel vehicle roster, as battery and fuel cell technologies make quantum leaps, could it all go away?

According to Renewable Energy Focus, an Elsevier publication, $18.9 billion in new money for clean energy companies was raised in the public markets in 2007, up 80% from last year. In the private equity/venture capital space, $8.5 billion was raised, up 27% from the prior year.

This investment level will expect long-term returns. And when investment luminaries from Richard Branson to the senior team at Google are placing large investments on alternative energy as well, it seems there's no turning back.

Could it replicate the telecom meltdown earlier in the decade? If rampant overcapacity is taking shape right now, sure.

But it seems clean energy is displacing legacy coal and petrol based systems, albeit at a very measured pace, and not adding vacant capacity.

The clean energy train has left the station.

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